A 1682 pamphlet printed by Richard Baldwin, defending the Earl of Shaftesbury is an early reference: "But your Lordships business is, to keep your Hounds in full cry, against the pretended Association, for since you cannot find one really in being; a red-herring from your own Kitchen, must be hunted and trail'd through the Kingdom, to make a noise." Unconvincing.
There are quite a few pubs called The Red Herring in Britain. One in Gresham St, London, claims: "Samuel Pepys enjoyed red herrings for his breakfast on the 28th February 1659 while waiting for his boot heel to be mended, so think of Sam when you drink in The Red Herring." As you might expect, this is completely apocryphal.
The jack of diamonds turned out to be a red herring on the following hand this week:
My partner had a nasty guess. He opened 1S, third in hand after two passes, and the auction proceeded 2H-3D-3S-4S-Double-All Pass. 3D, by a passed hand, was a fit-non-jump and showed 4-card spade support. West led a top club and switched to the jack of hearts. Declarer won with the ace, drew trumps in two rounds, and had to tackle the diamonds. Without the jack of diamonds, he would have been forced to play a diamond to the king, relying on the diamonds to be 2-2 with the ace onside. However this red herring introduced an alternative line of running the jack of diamonds. East won with the queen and the defence still had the top club and the ace of diamonds to come. One off was a top for East-West.
Declarer's line was suspect for two reasons. West surely has the ace of diamonds for his double. If West did have AQx of diamonds, the layout Declarer was playing for, then the opponents would be making 4H. Therefore, 4Sx-1 would get some matchpoints. On the actual hand, the mirror distribution means that 4H does not make for East-West. Finally, the silver bullet is that with AQx of diamonds, West could have given his partner a diamond ruff, and he did not do so. The expression "silver bullet" is also very old:
Walter Scott’s Tales of My Landlord, 1816: "Many a whig that day loaded his musket with a dollar cut into slugs, in order that a silver bullet (such was their belief) might bring down the persecutor of the holy kirk, on whom lead had no power."