Walking the Dog by Foxymoron

The expression "walking the dog" in bridge refers to the tactic of bidding less than a hand is worth but then adding one level each time the bidding comes round again. The hope is that the opponents will eventually double. The meaning "to trick the opponent" possibly comes from Gershwin's 1937 song Walking the Dog in the film Shall We Dance. Alternatively the words of Walking the Dog, the 1963 song by Rufus Thomas, could have created the meaning of deception.

Urban slang uses "walking the dog" as committing adultery, another deception, and it has also become used to mean visiting the bathroom. The Americans are fond of euphemisms and "going to see a man about a dog" is another of their contorted phrases for going to the bathroom. The song Walking the Dog is very American:

I asked her mother for fifteen cents

See the elephant jump the fence

He jumped so high, he touched the skies

Never got back till the fourth of July

Steve Coulter attempted to walk the dog on Tuesday, and he ended with a good result, but his opponents might have done better:

North opened a weak 2S and South decided to "go slowly" and passed. West bid 3D as 4D would have shown 5-5 in the red suits and 5D ruled out playing other contracts. East bid 3H and South again walked the dog with 3S. West now showed his heart support with 4H which went round to South who finally bid 4S.  West smelled a rat and bid 5D. This expression seems to come from English poet John Skelton's 1540 poem "The Image of Ipocrysy": 

But then beware the catte; For yf they smell a ratt, 

They grisely chide and chatt

5D should have ended the auction. If West had wanted to offer a "choice of red-suit saves", he would have bid 4NT but East "corrected" (or should that be "wronged") to 5H anyway. So the full auction was:

                       North        East        South        West

                        2S            Pass        Pass           3D

                        Pass         3H           3S             4H

                        Pass         Pass         4S             5D

                        Pass         5H           All Pass

South led his singleton diamond and declarer won with the ace and played a top heart. South ducked this, and North won to give his partner a diamond ruff for one off. Remarkably, eschewing the diamond ruff and playing a spade instead would have beaten the contract by two, but this was very hard to find and could have been completely wrong.

5D would probably have made. North needs to lead the king of hearts, in a suit bid and supported by the opponents, to beat this. Frequently found online during Covid in the days of self-kibitzing, but not since ... As it was, 5H-1 was still worth 68% to North-South. The results this week were skewed with five pairs above 60% but no pair below 40%. It was good to see 13 tables as well.

Math by Foxymoron

The Americans correctly shorten mathematics to "math", whereas the Brits and Australians use "maths". We are wrong of course as it is a collective noun, like sugar. We ask "How many sugars?" as short for "how many teaspoons of sugar?" but we would never ask at a supermarket "Where are the sugars, please?"

I have been asked how important math(s) is in bridge. Quite a bit, and discussions of the right percentage line is a common feature of bridge magazines. There is a book on Card Combinations, which shows the percentage chance of making x tricks with a particular suit holding. Most of the time, however, the whole hand comes into play as in a hand at the Woodberry last week.

Most played Four Hearts by East and only one made 11 tricks. The bidding always began 1H-(Pass) and now West will probably bid 2NT, a game-forcing heart raise, or a splinter of 4C, also showing four-card heart support. North-South should sacrifice in 5C but none did. Two were even allowed to play the hand in 4C, which made on the nose. This expression might well have originated in the early days of radio broadcasting. The presenter putting his forefinger "on the nose" indicated that the broadcast was running on time. I certainly would not broadcast that I had given in to 4C here, and the decision comes for EW over 5C.

If East goes on to 5H, there is a chance for South to shine. It may be necessary to keep the lead, and the king of clubs does so. Then the defence might well find the diamond shift needed to break the contract.  However, a small club is a more likely lead, and North can do little other than play one back, which is ruffed in dummy. Two rounds draw all the trumps. How should East play?

I think the percentage line is to run the ten of spades. North wins and cannot do other than play a third club, ruffed in dummy while East pitches a diamond. Now declarer could return to hand and take a second spade finesse. This is about a 75% line, winning whenever South has one of the spade honours. However, declarer can do better. Laying down the ace of spades is the right line. If both opponents follow you ruff a spade and if someone still has the king, you then take the diamond finesse. 

The math of the right line is as follows (ignoring the fact that North has two hearts to South's one or that North may have longer clubs).

a) if South has the jack of spades: 50%.

b) if the spades are 3-3 or the king is doubleton. This is all the 3-3 breaks, 36%, plus 12% for a doubleton king, a total of 48%. This only applies when North has the jack of spades, so adds 24% to our success rate.

c) Finally if North has the jack of spades and the spades are 4-2 with the king in the long hand, then you take the diamond finesse. This allows you to make an additional (100-50%-24%) x 50% of the time. This adds 13% to the chance of success, elevating it to 87%.

Some of these figures will be affected by available spaces calculations, another example of math in bridge hands. The king of diamonds is more likely to be in South, as is the king of spades, but if North showed strength that will tilt it the other way. But it is clear that the declarers in 4H misplayed the hand, unless they were unlucky enough to get the king of clubs lead and a diamond switch (or an unlikely initial diamond lead). Also one or two Welsh internationals misplayed the hand when given to them as a play problem.