The heading here had an excellent crossword clue "Bowie character, a doubter briefly following suit? (5,3)" The persona from Space Oddity and Black Star needs no introduction, but a word of explanation is in order. The suit is clearly a major and the doubter (briefly) is Tom, a reference to the biblical character Doubting Thomas as in this painting by Serodine.
a) In match-points the two contracts often play for the same number of tricks
b) Even if you do find a 4-4 fit, the suit might break 4-1.
c) When you bid Stayman you risk it being doubled for the lead
d) Careless talk costs lives. The auction 1NT-3NT is much less informative.
So, if you are in doubt whether to use Stayman to look for a major, then don't be in doubt - just bid 3NT and follow the Hamman rule. "If 3NT is a possible contract then bid it". About the only exception should be when you have aces and kings, and a low doubleton somewhere. This hand from last night's SIMs showed the principle well.
In theory it is right to play 4H here, as the defence can take five rounds of spades against 3NT, but on the uninformative auction, East is not leading the king of spades. If you do bid Stayman, you will get to 4H, but East might well lead the king of spades against that, and you will only make 10 tricks. Indeed on four rounds of spades, you must ruff in the North hand, but then can pick up the trumps for no loser.
This is a good hand for Lucas twos, which my partner and I have switched to recently. If West opens 2S, then East will have no difficulty in finding the king of spades lead against 4H, for a near top. One player opened 1S, which I think is wrong, but it does remind me of the poser. "Why did the Sky football commentator open on an 8-count?" with the obvious answer, "Because he was Ferdinand".
4H is also better on this hand as on a non spade lead you can ruff a diamond for your 11th trick where as the no trumpers will only make 10. Although your general point is very valid and it certainly looks right to bid 3NT on this South hand.
ReplyDeleteAnd it wasn't a good hand for Lucas 2's in that if you open one (or a warped weak 2 like I did) North will double and South will play 4H which gives West little hope of finding a low spade lead.
Indeed, 3NT was only an average plus as 4H bidder did often make 11. But I think that East should lead the king of spades against 4H. He has some trump control, and this could easily lead to the fourth trick. Kx is an underrated opening lead.
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