Absolute Zero by Foxymoron

The very old gambling game Fan-Tan is thought to have originated in the fourth century in China. It is peculiar because it seems to be unaware of zero. The "house" removes small objects from a big pile until either 1, 2, 3 or 4 remain. Players bet on which of those it will be. Zero was invented in Mesopotamia around 3 BC, and the Mayans invented it independently around 4 AD. It seems the Chinese were not "aware" of it, or their game would have remainders of 0,1,2 and 3.

The game originally offered pay-outs of 3:1, but nowadays there is a commission on winning bets, often as high as 5%. If the house take is zero, then the game can be beaten, as 4 is slightly more likely to be the remainder. Just think of a random number between 4 and x inclusive. The remainder when 4 are removed at a time is slightly more likely to be 4.

My partner and I reached a slam last night at the Woodberry, where I think the chances of success were absolutely zero. Given that is -273.15°C, I guess you could say it was cold ...

We  bid, uncontested, 1C-1H-2H-2S-4H-4NT*-5S*-6H. It is the nine of clubs away from having some play, but with the actual cards there is no layout which gives it a chance. 2S in our auction was a game try, and 4H accepted. 5S showed two and the queen, and the damage had now been done.

I have some sympathy for my partner's actions as North, but slam always rates to be slightly against the odds even if the fit is better. A simulation on Bridge Analyser, giving partner a 14-count with 4 hearts, has the following matrix:

The above mini-chart shows the percentage for each number of tricks (on the top row) that North will make in hearts. So, slam will make 42% of the time. One needs it it to be 50% to be justified in bidding it.

Another useful bit of software is the Kaplan-Rubens hand evaluator, fairly accurate on balanced hands. That makes the North hand 16.75, and slam rates to be poor opposite a 14-count. For completeness, the South hand weighs in at 13.85, so fairly normal to accept the game-try of 2S. And fairly normal to make only 11 tricks.

The Grosvenor Gambit by Foxymoron

The American expert Philip Grosvenor met an untimely and unexplained death in Florida in 1968. He made a habit of deliberately letting contracts make only for his opponent to go off anyway as they could not believe he would defend this way. His aim was to annoy the opponents who would play badly on the next hand as a result. This was the original hand on which he earned his infamy, courtesy of The Bridge World in 1973.

West led the ace of clubs against Six Hearts and continued the suit. Now declarer played the top spades and ruffed the third spade in dummy with the jack. East discarded a diamond on this trick. Naturally enough declarer cashed the two top hearts and was dismayed and angry that East had the queen! An excellent Grosvenor which was always going to work.

I inadvertently tried a Grosvenor Gambit on a hand at the Woodberry this week.

East opened 1NT, 12-14, and West bid Stayman and then bid 2NT over East's response of 2H. This was invitational without four spades and East continued with 3NT. South led the five of diamonds to my king and East's ace. Nothing was lost by ducking and that would have been my choice, but East won.

Now declarer led a spade and finessed the queen and I ducked smoothly. 

"If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly". Any break in tempo would give the game away.

I did not know whether partner had both diamond honours but ducking could hardly cost. My aim was not to irritate the declarer, Martin Lerner, but to know more about the hand when I did win. I suppose it was a Grosvenor Gambit in that declarer now had nine tricks. But, as expected, declarer returned to hand, with the ace of clubs, to repeat the spade finesse. I now knew declarer had five club tricks. I still did not know if he had the jack or queen of diamonds, but my partner had to have one of them for his fourth best lead, so I played back a diamond and we cashed out for two off. Martin recovered from the dagger and went on to win the event and is still speaking to me. Well done to Martin Lerner and Fabien Dunlop on their excellent result.

The Gambler by Foxymoron

One of my and Stefanie's favourite songs is The Gambler by Kenny Rogers, and was our first choice for the annual Karaoke in Pula. I was reminded of a few lines of this song by a hand at the Woodberry this week.

He said, "Son, I've made a life

Out of readin' people's faces

Knowin' what the cards were

By the way they held their eyes

So if you don't mind my sayin'

I can see you're out of aces

For a taste of your whiskey

I'll give you some advice"

If I was South on this hand I would certainly have responded after the opening lead, "So if you don't mind my sayin', I can see you're out of aces".

At one table, West opened a gambling 3NT showing a solid minor with little outside. That would have been my choice too, despite the queen and king outside. as  you only have three major suit cards. Everyone passed and North led the ten of hearts, an interior sequence. This was wrong against a gambling 3NT, and the general advice is to lead an ace, or, if you don't have one, the highest card in your hand. Here I would lead the ace of hearts, after which the switch to the ace of spades is easy to find and the defence takes the first seven tricks. Instead declarer made all 13 when South pitched a club at some stage, but even 11 would have been a top.

Several Wests played in 4D, the defence to which is quite tough. Say North leads the ace of spades and his partner encourages. Now if North plays a second spade and South wins and plays the jack of spades, West has to discard the king of hearts to avoid the immediate trump promotion. Now South can play a fourth spade and a trump is promoted.

An alternative defence is to cash the ace of hearts before playing a second spade, but that would be fatal if West is void. Then South can play a third spade to promote a trump trick. 

Chalk and Cheese by Foxymoron

Some years ago there was a bridge match between the Naturalists and the Scientists. The former were not allowed to use any conventions while the latter could use any system they wanted. The latter triumphed by a small margin. I think that conventions are fine with a regular partner but one should avoid them with a pick-up partner or when acting as a host.

Trying to mix conventions with natural bidding does not really work. If a bid is used conventionally it cannot also be used naturally. The two methods are like chalk and cheese. Rubber bridge players stand by natural methods with penalty doubles in many situations that tournament players treat as takeout.

"Like chalk and cheese", meaning incompatible or dissimilar, predates bridge by a long time. It was first used, I believe, in 1390 by John Gower in his text Confessio Amantis:

Lo, how thei feignen chalk for chese,

For though thei speke and teche wel,

Thei don hemself therof no del:

For if the wolf come in the weie,

Her gostly Staf is thanne aweie

I adopted the natural approach when playing as a host this week at the club.

Playing a relatively simple system, I responded 3NT to South's opening bid of 1H, showing 13-14 balanced. I foolishly thought that the opponent would have to find a blind lead. Unfortunately for me East led a small diamond (I would have chosen a spade) and I only made nine tricks instead of the twelve I could have made on any other lead. I could have made ten but that would have involved looking through the back of the cards.

The winners, Ken Rolph and Stefanie Rohan, bid 1H-2C-2H-4H. Stefanie thought 2H probably showed six, Ken thought it showed only five and 2S would have shown reversing values. I would have chosen 3NT on my second turn as North but there is no arguing with success. With all the suits behaving, twelve tricks in hearts were relatively easy and this turned out to be a complete top, with almost everyone in 3NT!

Playing 2 over 1, one might bid 1H-2C-2S, which does not show extras. Now North might ask for shape with 2NT and South bids 3C, showing three. North's 4H completes the auction of the scientists. But that would be like chalk and cheese compared with the auctions of the rest of the Woodberry.

The Count by Foxymoron

Those of us who watched Sesame Street in the seventies will know The Count, or Count von Count to give him his full title. 

He is Romanian, by birth, and first appeared in the programme in 1972. Many bridge players stand by The Count, and the most common method of giving count is to play high showing an even number of cards in a suit and low to show an odd number of cards.

However, there is another count in bridge. It is the number of tricks remaining to be played, one of which is a loser, and is most relevant in squeezes. Terms like a "squeeze without the count", and "rectifying the count", are known to bridge players. For a simple squeeze, one has an ending with all but one of the remaining cards being winners and a defender holding guards in more than one suit. The Count's erstwhile girlfriend, Count von Backwards, is an expert on squeezes as she counts backwards anyway. She quickly works out how many cards will be left in the ending. A hand from yesterday's duplicate:

Our opponents had the simple auction 1D-6D, which had the virtue of giving plenty of time to get a coffee after the hand, as declarer just ruffed a club in dummy. I think I would have started with 1D-2D, inverted and forcing. Now North might bid 3C and South would bid 3S, showing spade cards and 6D would probably be reached, not 6NT. I was surprised nobody was in the failing 7D.

6D was an average, but more ambitious souls reached 6NT. If East leads a passive spade, then declarer can "rectify the count" by ducking a club at some point. In the three-card ending, West will have sole guard of clubs and hearts and will be squeezed.

A heart lead prevents this line, as West will cash his heart if you duck a club. You now need to play a squeeze without the count, cashing the diamonds and two spades to reach this position.

It is important that South has an entry outside clubs at this point. Now you cross to the ace of spades and West is squeezed. If he pitches a club you make an unexpected overtrick. He must therefore pitch the six of hearts and now you duck a heart to West and make the last three tricks. A squeeze without the count.

The Snow Leopard by Foxymoron

There is a saying that "The leopard cannot change its spots" which has some applicability to bridge. It is a bit of a myth, however, as the Snow Leopard has, over the years, developed its spots to blend in with the mountain side. It is a powerful predator, and has no animal threats, only humans. See if you can spot it in the picture below (no pun intended).

The original phrase is Biblical: Jeremiah 13:23, where the Hebrew prophet had originally said: “Can the Ethiopian change his skin, or the leopard its spots?”

Its relevance to bridge is that once you have shown a particular hand type, then further calls do not change that hand type. They might refine your values or controls, but that is all. A hand from the Woodberry yesterday shows this well.

The field seemed to have had a problem with this hand, as 4C-1 was a complete average, which, with 26 points between the two hands, suggests that one was left on the course. At almost all tables, South opened 1S (one South without a pulse passed), and West usually overcalled 2H. North passed and the spotlight turned on East.  There is no way to show both minors. 3D was chosen by many, and now I think it is right for West to bid 3NT and for East to pass that. At one table, East, not unreasonably, continued with 4C and I think West should then bid a firm 4NT, saying "I told you last turn that I have a solid spade stop, partner. I still have". 

The leopard here cannot change its spots, and 4NT makes in some comfort. Indeed the defence has to cash both spades after the ace of clubs is knocked out, or declarer will make 11 as happened at one table, resulting in a top for EW. The top for NS was 4H-5, with North sensibly not doubling. A correction to 4NT would have punished his greed.

Kickback by Foxymoron

The expression "kickback" arose from the automotive industry as a reaction from an engine, and is also the build up of pressure in a wellhead. With the growth of the Mafia in the early twentieth century it became used for an illegal bribe or an undisclosed rake-off from collected revenue. The great film Bugsy featured Warren Beatty as the gangster getting a kickback from money due for the mob and this led to his execution. About a $2,000,000 kickback. Which was "a lot of money in 1947" as they say.

As you may know, Warren Beatty married his co-star Annette Bening, who played Victoria Hill, and they are still married today. And it wasn't for the $2 million!

Kickback in bridge refers to a bid above the agreed trump suit as an ace-asking bid. You need to know when it is kickback and when it is natural or disaster will beckon. And you need to agree when it applies and when it is just a cue-bid. Stefanie and I would have benefited from such an agreement on the following hand yesterday. We were guessing and I guessed wrong.

We started normally with (Pass)-1C-(1S)-2S-(3S). 2S was a good raise to 3C, about 10+, usually with five clubs. Now it would have been good to find out about West's keycards, but 4C by East would be non-forcing, and not Minorwood which we do play. I made the poor bid of 5C, and I think I should have bid 4D, a cue for clubs. West would bid 4H and I might then bid 6C, which is an excellent contract. I was reluctant to bid 3NT on the East hand, as we are likely to only have a single spade stop, and I did not want to bid RKCB as the response of 5D would force me to bid slam. 4D, kickback, which we have now agreed when 4C is non-forcing, would have found out about the two key cards and the queen of clubs. A good suggestion of Stefanie's.

Five Clubs and Six Clubs are interesting contracts. In the former, I played my best line for 13 tricks of playing a diamond to the king and a diamond to the jack, which worked well and scored +440. At least I beat the two pairs that cashed out in 3NT for +430. Six Clubs is a different kettle of fish. You will get a big score if you make it, so don't worry about the overtrick. Now you should cash the ace and king of diamonds and lead low to the jack, making your contract unless South has QTxx in diamonds. 

The origin of "kettle of fish" is interesting. The earliest use as "something very different" seems to be the London Mercury of 1923:

Major Tom by Foxymoron

Ground Control to Major Tom

Your circuit's dead, there's something wrong

We had a normal enough auction yesterday to what seemed like the best contract, but there was something wrong. We scored well below average on the board, and I decided to do some analysis of the auction.

We had what seemed like a standard auction, 1D-1S-2C-2D-All Pass. And I managed to make ten tricks. The problem is that people were making nine in spades, so my +130 was not great. Computers are getting better at bridge and they are more helpful than ever before. Plugging the two hands in to Bridge Dealer revealed that the best contract was 2S, and my partner might have bid that. The textbooks say that with a weak hand you should give what is called "false preference" but rebidding the five-card major is probably better. It is quite likely to be a 5-2 fit, and why would you want to play a 5-2 diamond fit at matchpoints in preference to a 5-2 spade fit? 

The defence to 2D is interesting. Say that the defence starts with the ace of hearts and East discourages. Now a club switch holds declarer to eight tricks. East can play a second club and if declarer draws trumps, West will be able to cash two clubs. 2S is also tricky. The defence has to set up their club tricks and only the ace of clubs lead hold the declarer to eight tricks. West can win a heart and play two more rounds of clubs to promote a second trump. An unlikely defence

Major Tom is right. Choose a major over a minor if you have a five-card suit and would otherwise have to give false preference. Some would open the East hand a weak no-trump, far too strong in my book. But they are rewarded when West transfers to spades and East plays in 2S. And the lead of the ace of hearts is surprisingly fatal.

Lead Balloon by Foxymoron

The expression lead balloon, which means a complete failure, seems to originate from about 1924, when the phrase appeared in a "Mom N-Pop" cartoon which I have been able to locate:

It is claimed that Keith Moon described a bad gig as being "like a lead balloon" and this led to the naming of the pop group Led Zeppelin. That accords with the group being heavy metal, as a lead balloon would certainly be heavy.

I have only seen the phrase used occasionally in bridge, and it was suggested in one article that a lead balloon was an opening lead that blew several tricks so was a complete failure. When defending 1NT doubled yesterday, we managed to make four tricks fewer than our entitlement, and that was a top to bottom swing.

East opened 1NT, 12-14, in third seat, and my double as South ended the auction. I led the king of clubs, and North played the jack, the normal card, promising the ten. I did not know whether partner had JTx or Jx (or even a singleton jack), so decided to continue with the king of clubs and a small club, establishing my eight. North discarded the eight of hearts, reverse attitude, on this. East now led the king of hearts which I won and partner played the seven. If anything that suggested a spade from South, but East could have the king or queen in which case North will have something in diamonds. I cashed the eight of clubs, and partner discarded the three of hearts, which may well have been forced. I decided to play a diamond, but that just led to an overtrick. A spade switch would have been more successful, collecting +300, and an initial spade lead more successful still, collecting +500 as the defence now has eight(!) tricks in the black suits. North did not want to discard a diamond as that might be expensive if I had an honour, and a spade might also cost if I had Axx in the suit. 

At least we conceded the overtrick, which was -280, and we did not have to put up with the opponents chanting "ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY" in the style of the darts fans at Ally Pally. And I nearly forgot. Lead is one element whose chemical symbol (Pb) has none of the letters of the element. Can you name the other eight? No googling the periodic table!

Points Schmoints by Foxymoron

A quiz at the Pula Bridge Festival invited participants to identify the authors of various books and one was the book below which I bought some years ago, so I had no problem naming him. It is a wonderful title and after you read it you should adjust your thinking to reflect the quality of the points you hold and their relevance to the auction. You can find the author easily!

Early on, I opened the following hand 1NT as dealer. I should not have done as I was vulnerable. Especially as the K-R for the hand is a paltry 11.35. I was a bit surprised to find out it was so low as the tens and nine appear to be working.

Of course it went "All Pass" and I went for the "kiss of death" of -200. I was grateful to find that I scored 15% for this effort. The phrase "kiss of death" has an interesting origin. Most people associate it with Judas Iscariot betraying Jesus Christ with a kiss, but others believe that the phrase refers to a practice among the American Mafia of bestowing a kiss on someone who has betrayed the Mafia don and is therefore marked for death.

Licking my wounds, I needed a chunky 15 count for my next 1NT opener.

The North hand weighs in at 14.40 despite the barren shape, but game is unlikely when partner has passed so I chose to open a 12-14 1NT. I thought this was better than opening 1C on the three-card suit. East doubled, although I would have shown my hearts, presumably with the popular 2D, Multi-Landy. Nigel Freake, South, bid 3C and West intended his double as takeout, but East thought it was penalties and 3C doubled became the final contract. A common problem and there was no defence so North-South notched up +470 and a top. 

Morton's Fork by Foxymoron

Morton's Fork was named after John Morton, Archbishop of Canterbury under Henry VII in 1486 and Lord Chancellor in 1487. He argued that someone living modestly must be saving money, and therefore could afford to pay tax, whereas someone living extravagantly was obviously rich, and therefore could also afford to pay tax. In bridge it is used when a defender has a choice of two actions which fail in different ways.

Cardinal John Morton in a stained glass window

Shelley Shieff showed her understanding of the principle in the following hand, and your scribe and his partner were the victims.

The auction was Pass-Pass-1D-1NT-Pass-2C*-Pass-2S-Pass-4S-All Pass. 2C was Stayman and Andy Clery's raise to game showed justified confidence in his partner's card-play. 

South, Graham Horsecroft, led the queen of spades and East won, ruffed a diamond, and led the queen of clubs. North, Paul Lamford, ducked and declarer, Shelley Shieff, continued with a second club won by the ace, and now ruffed another diamond, ruffed a club, and ruffed a third diamond. Now she led the king of hearts from dummy and North was caught in Morton's Fork. If he won the ace, he was forced to lead a red suit, conceding the tenth trick. Instead he ducked, but Shelley played a club throwing a heart from East. South ruffed and played the jack of spades but East won and led the ace of diamonds. South could ruff, but now the seven of spades was declarer's tenth trick. Very nicely played.

And I nearly forgot about last week's poser. As a mathematical site shows, the chance of a host NOT getting a game at the Woodberry is the sum of the sequence 0, 2, 4, ... 2^n in a Poisson distribution. This works out to be

lambda is the average number of people who turn up without a partner, which my records show is about 1.2. This works out to be 54.5%. So the host is more likely to go home (or to the pub to watch Forest v Arsenal in my case).

I don't think I need to add to Andy Conway's analysis of the chance of there being a fifth Tuesday game.

 

Slam Dunk by Foxymoron

The phrase “slam dunk" was first used by Los Angeles Lakers announcer Chick Hearn. it is now used about something that is easy to achieve, but originally was a basketball shot where the player is tall enough and athletic enough to get his hand above the basket and drop it in.

On a fifth Tuesday, there is usually a different format to matchpoints, and the simplest to organise is IMP pairs, in which bidding games (and slams) gets a much higher reward. I thought one hand on Tuesday was a "slam dunk", or a "grand dunk" I suppose. However it transpired that only the winners, John Bernard and Mike Bull, managed to bid the grand.

This does look easy, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. Assuming silent opponents NS might bid 1D-1H-3D-4D (which my regular partner and I play as ace-asking, or minorwood) - 5C(2 key cards plus the queen of diamonds)-7D. South is known to have at least AKQxxx in diamonds, and needs some extras for his 3D jump rebid. The worst that can happen is that it needs hearts 2-2, opposite Kx xxx AKQxxx Kx, and it will be cold if South has a doubleton heart or the queen. On the actual hand it makes even if hearts are 4-1.

As I was host this week, I had some spare time and amused myself by calculating 

a) the chances of the host getting a game. You need to know the average number of people who turn up without a partner, and that historically is about 1.2.

b) the chances of the month that you are in having a fifth Tuesday.

I will revert, as they say.

The Albatross by Foxymoron

Often, to amuse themselves, the men of a crew

Catch albatrosses, those vast sea birds

That indolently follow a ship

As it glides over the deep, briny sea.

Three under par in golf is known as an Albatross. The expression seems to go back to 1929, in a match between Durham and Hartlepool. "One certainly didn’t hear of any ‘albatrosses’ or even ‘eagles’ but certainly some ‘birdies’ were achieved." was the report. Of course, in bridge, -3 is not usually a good score (unless a save at favourable vulnerability), and is well below par. 

My result on this hand was an "albatross around my neck", an expression that stems from The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, and prevented Stefanie and me from doing better in the recent SIMs. It was close to a nationwide bottom, but I had no regrets.

We reached 4S by North after the auction (Pass)-Pass-(1H)-1S-(2H)-2S-(Pass)-4S-(All Pass). East led his singleton diamond and I had to decide on the play. The opening bid by West strongly suggested to me that he had the king of spades and a losing spade finesse would surely lead to a diamond ruff. I decided to play ace and another spade but East won, played a heart to the ace and had a diamond ruff anyway so I only made 10 tricks. Of course, taking the spade finesse would have made all 13 tricks, six diamonds, six spades and an ace. My result was therefore "three under par", an Albatross, and the seven pairs that notched up +510 were no doubt mocking me.

The Offside King by Foxymoron

 An interesting quiz question is "who was known as the offside king?" Clearly it relates to football and the answer is Sergio Aguero, the prolific Manchester City striker.  He was offside the most times in the Premiership - around half the time he was in the opposing box. That was good value for his team, of course, as in the other half of the time he scored, as in the famous goal at the end of the 2012 season. AGUERRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ...

The chances of a king being offside in bridge is about 50%. Jill Shortman had some "king-guessing" to do on the following hand from the Woodberry duplicate:

Roly and Jill reached a reasonable 6H by West after the start 1S-2H and North, your scribe, found the most testing lead of a diamond to the queen and ace. Without the diamond lead, you would cash the ace of hearts and then take the spade finesse after giving up a heart. 

I would lead the queen of hearts from West against most players, and if North does not cover, I would rise. As Zia famously says in his new book, "If they don't cover, they don't have it." Of course, North should reason that his partner does not have Tx in hearts, and not cover from Kx, but people don't. 

The correct technical line is the one Jill chose. To take the heart finesse. Two down was the result and virtue had to be its own reward. Someone with far more classical knowledge than I corrected me when I claimed this expression derived from Cicero, whereas it appears in works by the poet Ovid.

l'appel du vide by Foxymoron

The heading translates as "the call of the void" which is an unfortunate phenomenon, known in psychology as autokabelesis.  It causes people, usually young males, to jump off a high structure. Archway Bridge in North London sees examples of this, and was the subject of a tasteless prank hoarding a few years ago, which caused at least one reader of Private Eye to extend his subscription ...

In bridge, when responding to RKCB, one has to decide what call to make with a void and whether to jump. Fortunately the stakes are not as high, but a missed grand can be the result of a misunderstanding. One method, discussed on Bridgewinners is: 

For an odd number of key cards and a void, you jump to 6 of your void if the void is in a suit below the trump suit, or 6 of the trump suit if the void is in a higher ranking suit.

The chances of partner having read the same post from some years ago are minimal, however. I think the right method is to jump to a level higher with a void. but never to bid above the trump suit at the six level.

The following hand proved beyond our methods, but we still emerged with an unexpected top.

We bid, uncontested, 1S-2C-3S-4D*-4H*-4NT*-5S*-6S. I think the fitting queen of clubs merits an upgrade to 3S after a 2-level response. 4NT was keycard for spades, and we had no agreement on how to show two key cards plus the queen of spades plus a void. I think that 6S is probably the call, but would it be interpreted correctly? And if South had hearts, then 6S would not be a wise choice as that would commit the partnership to 7H. The answer, of course, is to play kickback and minorwood, but that is a lot more work for occasional partnerships.

I am not sure why others could not bid a small slam. A phrase in Genesis Rabbah comes to mind: בשוק סמייא צווחין לעווירא סגי נהור, meaning "In the street of the blind, the one-eyed man is called the guiding light" and this predates the Erasmus quote I used some weeks ago by a millennium.